September Analysis
- September ended the third quarter on a slower note, with average DOM climbing above 60 days — nearly double the target rate for a healthy 10% vacancy. However, rent levels held steady at $1,374, nearly identical to the same period last year.
- The number of leased properties increased 23% compared to September 2024.
- The number of new listings for September was roughly the same as in 2023. This is a trend that we hope to continue to see.
Q2 v Q3 Analysis
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Δ | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leases | 758 | 759 | +1 | +0.1% |
| Average Rent | $1,429 | $1,410 | –$19 | –1.3% |
| Median Rent | $1,425 | $1,400 | –$25 | –1.8% |
| Average DOM | 53.1 | 56.2 | +3.1 | +5.8% |
| Median DOM | 35.0 | 42.0 | +7 | +20.0% |
Pricing softened slightly quarter-to-quarter while volume held stable. The uptick in DOM indicates more competition in the rental pool, though occupancy remains strong overall. The summer leasing cycle maintained momentum, but absorption slowed slightly as tenants took longer to make decisions.
Q3 v Q3
| Metric | Q3 2024 | Q3 2025 | Δ | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leases Closed | 648 | 759 | +111 | +17.1% |
| Average Rent | $1,357 | $1,410 | +$53 | +3.9% |
| Median Rent | $1,350 | $1,400 | +$50 | +3.7% |
| Average DOM | 45.8 | 56.2 | +10.4 | +22.7% |
| Median DOM | 32.5 | 42.0 | +9.5 | +29.2% |
- Rent growth remains positive, up 3.9% YoY, with median pricing holding around $1,400.
- Leasing volume surged 17% compared to last year, marking a strong Q3 performance.
- DOM increased substantially year-over-year (+22.7%), signaling more listings per renter and a longer leasing cycle.
- The data points to a balanced market rather than a slowdown — demand remains solid, but supply is allowing renters to be more selective.
Year to Date 2025 v 2024
| Metric | 2024 YTD | 2025 YTD | Δ | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leases Closed | 2,297 | 2,123 | –174 | –7.6% |
| Average Rent | $1,374 | $1,412 | +$38 | +2.8% |
| Median Rent | $1,375 | $1,400 | +$25 | +1.8% |
| Average DOM | 53.8 | 57.2 | +3.4 | +6.3% |
| Median DOM | 36.0 | 41.0 | +5.0 | +13.9% |
2025 continues to outperform 2024 on pricing but underperforms in leasing volume and velocity. Average rents are up nearly 3%, but marketing times have increased by about four days on average. This likely reflects a combination of higher new-construction supply, stabilized renter demand, and tighter affordability.
Parting Thoughts
Forecast and Market Outlook (Q4 2025)
Using 2025 month-to-month trendlines, we project:
Avg Rent: Stabilizing between $1,390–$1,410 for Q4.
- Avg DOM: Expected to stay around 56–60 days, though well-priced units in prime ZIPs will continue leasing in 30–40 days.
- Rents are likely to remain flat through year-end as new supply in West Lubbock and the Wolfforth corridor hits the market. Vacancy rates are expected to remain near 10–11%.
Local Real Estate Event Impacting the Market
City of Lubbock Ends Impact Fee Collections (August 2025)
In mid-August, the Lubbock City Council voted to suspend impact fee collections — fees previously assessed on new developments to fund utility infrastructure.
Read the full story →
This change could make new construction more financially viable, particularly for build-to-rent projects and single-family developments. The thought is that this will make construction more cost-effective. Time will tell if this trickle-down approach will save Lubbock citizens money.
Impact:
Short term: Neutral or slightly softening effect on rents as developers accelerate starts.
Mid-term: May bring additional supply by 2026, moderating rent growth and increasing competition for existing single-family rentals.
Long term: Positive for housing diversity and affordability in the broader metro area.
Key Takeaways
- Rent Growth Continues: +3.9% YoY in Q3; +2.8% YTD.
- Leasing Slower: DOM up 22–29% YoY, pushing above the 36-day target.
- Volume Rebounded in Q3: 759 leases (+17.1% YoY) after a slower start to the year.
- Strong ZIPs: 79382 and 79424 lead in rent and stability; 79415 leads in speed.
- Market Shift: A balanced market is emerging — not overheated, but healthy.
Recommendations for Property Owners
- Optimize pricing: Lower by $50–$100 in ZIPs where DOM exceeds 45 days.
- Refresh listings every 21 days to improve algorithmic ranking and engagement.
- Accelerate showings: Respond to all inquiries within 24 hours; slow response is now the #1 driver of extended DOM.
- Target timing: Aim for mid-month listings to capture peak weekend traffic.
- Highlight value: Emphasize energy efficiency, pet amenities, and washer/dryer inclusion—three consistent search filters across MLS and Zillow.
Final Summary
Q3 2025 confirms that Lubbock remains a rent-growth market even as leasing times extend. The market is healthy but more discerning. Renters have options, and listings that stand out move fastest. Owners and investors who adapt pricing early, maintain proactive communication, and leverage professional marketing will stay ahead of this steady, maturing market.
Why Mid-Term Rentals May Be the Smarter Play for Today’s Market
The short-term rental (STR) surge changed the way investors approached real estate, but the model is beginning to show strain. Constant turnovers, cleaning costs, seasonal gaps, and tightening city restrictions are making it harder for owners to maintain profit margins. Many hosts who once loved the flexibility of platforms like Airbnb or Vrbo now find the workload unsustainable and the returns inconsistent. That’s why more investors are shifting focus to mid-term rentals (MTRs). Furnished properties leased for 30 days or longer that cater to traveling professionals, corporate guests, and families in transition.
Mid-term rentals deliver what STRs often can’t: stability, lower expenses, and better tenant quality. Instead of nightly bookings and constant resets, owners can enjoy tenants who stay one to six months. Meaning fewer vacancies, smoother cash flow, and dramatically reduced turnover costs. MTR guests are typically nurses, corporate employees, or families relocating, and they treat the property as a temporary home rather than a hotel. Because leases exceed 30 days, MTRs also avoid most short-term rental restrictions, keeping investors compliant while offering more predictable income.
For many, MTRs strike the perfect balance between profit and peace of mind. While nightly STR rates can look higher on paper, the net return from a mid-term rental often wins once you factor in labor, utilities, and wear-and-tear. Even successful STR owners are adding MTRs to diversify their portfolio and hedge against market changes. At Coldwell Banker Residential Property Management, we help investors analyze market demand, returns, and logistics to determine whether an MTR strategy makes sense. If you’re ready for steadier income, fewer headaches, and long-term growth, it might be time to make the mid-term move.
Work with Coldwell Banker
Simplified Property Ownership
Managing investment properties involves a myriad of tasks, from tenant screenings and rent collection to maintenance and legal compliance. Our comprehensive property management services are designed to take these burdens off your shoulders. We handle everything, ensuring your properties are well-maintained and profitable, allowing you to focus on what matters most to you.
Expertise in All Property Types
Whether you own a single-family home or a multifamily apartment complex, our team has the expertise to manage a diverse range of properties. We understand the unique needs and challenges of different property types and tailor our services to meet those needs efficiently and effectively.
Clear and Concise Communication
One of the cornerstones of our service is our commitment to clear and concise communication. We believe that transparency is key to a successful partnership. You will always be kept in the loop regarding the status of your properties, tenant issues, financial reports, and any other pertinent information. Our goal is to ensure you have complete confidence and peace of mind, knowing that your investments are in capable hands.
Cutting-Edge Technology
In today’s fast-paced world, staying ahead of technological advancements is crucial. At Coldwell Banker Residential Property Management, we leverage the latest technology and systems to enhance our services. From online portals for easy access to property information and financial reports to advanced marketing tools that attract high-quality tenants, we use technology to streamline processes and maximize efficiency.
Service-Oriented Approach
Despite our reliance on technology, we never forget that we are, first and foremost, a service company. Our priority is to provide exceptional service to both property owners and tenants. We pride ourselves on being responsive, attentive, and dedicated to meeting your needs. Our team is always ready to go the extra mile to ensure your satisfaction and the smooth operation of your properties.
Partnering with Coldwell Banker Residential Property Management means entrusting your investment properties to a team of experienced professionals who are committed to simplifying property ownership. With our expertise, clear communication, cutting-edge technology, and unwavering dedication to service, we ensure that your properties are managed efficiently and effectively. Let us help you maximize the potential of your investment properties while providing you with the peace of mind you deserve.
Contact us today to learn more about how we can assist you in achieving your property management goals.
